North Dakota

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	221.0
Current RPI:	221
Expected SOS:	123
Current SOS:	123
Current Record:	10-20
Expected Record:	10-20
Current Conf Record:	7-13
Expected Conf Record:	7-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-4
Current OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC RPI:	155
Expected OOC SOS:	43

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-20	221.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Dakota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Troy (194.0)	SB	N	83-80	W	100%
11-12	Hawaii (213.0)	BW	A	81-78	L	0%
11-13	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	N	71-80	W	100%
11-19	Nebraska (56.0)	B10	A	92-70	L	0%
11-25	Utah Valley (83.0)	WAC	H	75-83	L	0%
12-5	Creighton (44.0)	BE	A	111-68	L	0%
12-9	North Dakota St. (210.0)	Sum	H	79-88	L	0%
12-12	South Dakota St. (37.0)	Sum	A	99-63	L	0%
12-16	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	A	89-83	L	0%
12-29	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	H	57-74	L	0%
12-31	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	H	64-77	L	0%
1-4	Montana (76.0)	BSky	A	109-79	L	0%
1-6	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	A	79-68	L	0%
1-11	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	H	81-58	W	100%
1-13	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	H	89-79	W	100%
1-16	North Dakota St. (210.0)	Sum	A	77-86	W	100%
1-20	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	A	94-91	L	0%
1-25	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	A	95-71	L	0%
1-27	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	A	96-71	L	0%
2-1	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	H	75-74	W	100%
2-3	Montana (76.0)	BSky	H	67-72	L	0%
2-8	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	A	84-76	L	0%
2-10	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	A	82-67	L	0%
2-15	Southern Utah (252.0)	BSky	H	61-57	W	100%
2-17	Northern Arizona (310.0)	BSky	H	86-81	W	100%
2-24	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	H	66-79	L	0%
3-1	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	A	73-90	W	100%
3-3	Portland St. (170.0)	BSky	A	97-90	L	0%
3-6	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	N	76-74	W	100%
3-8	Montana (76.0)	BSky	N	84-76	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Dakota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

North Dakota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against North Dakota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
North Dakota	BSky	26.50	26.50	33.85	33.85	-8.56	-8.56
Montana	BSky	5.83	5.83	75.00	75.00	2.92	2.92
Montana St.	BSky	5.72	5.72	37.04	37.04	-1.48	-1.48
Northern Colorado	BSky	4.40	4.40	58.62	58.62	0.76	0.76
Eastern Washington	BSky	4.20	4.20	53.33	53.33	0.28	0.28
Weber St.	BSky	4.16	4.16	61.54	61.54	0.96	0.96
Idaho St.	BSky	4.11	4.11	42.31	42.31	-0.63	-0.63
Idaho	BSky	4.08	4.08	66.67	66.67	1.36	1.36
North Dakota St.	Sum	3.42	3.42	40.74	40.74	-0.63	-0.63
Southern Utah	BSky	2.79	2.79	37.93	37.93	-0.67	-0.67
Portland St.	BSky	2.70	2.70	55.17	55.17	0.28	0.28
Northern Arizona	BSky	2.67	2.67	13.79	13.79	-1.93	-1.93
Sacramento St.	BSky	2.64	2.64	17.24	17.24	-1.73	-1.73
South Dakota St.	Sum	1.84	1.84	79.31	79.31	1.08	1.08
Utah Valley	WAC	1.82	1.82	64.29	64.29	0.52	0.52
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	1.78	1.78	41.18	41.18	-0.31	-0.31
Hawaii	BW	1.75	1.75	51.85	51.85	0.06	0.06
Troy	SB	1.72	1.72	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Creighton	BE	1.72	1.72	63.33	63.33	0.46	0.46
Gonzaga	WCC	1.69	1.69	87.88	87.88	1.28	1.28
Nebraska	B10	1.69	1.69	67.74	67.74	0.60	0.60
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.34	0.34	14.29	14.29	-0.24	-0.24
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.34	0.34	24.14	24.14	-0.17	-0.17
South Dakota	Sum	0.33	0.33	73.33	73.33	0.15	0.15
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.31	0.31	70.00	70.00	0.12	0.12
Denver	Sum	0.31	0.31	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.28	0.28	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.25	0.25	28.57	28.57	-0.11	-0.11
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.23	0.23	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.23	0.23	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.22	0.22	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
BYU	WCC	0.22	0.22	70.59	70.59	0.09	0.09
Georgia St.	SB	0.21	0.21	68.75	68.75	0.08	0.08
Western Illinois	Sum	0.20	0.20	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
UC Riverside	BW	0.20	0.20	24.14	24.14	-0.10	-0.10
Utah St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.19	0.19	16.13	16.13	-0.13	-0.13
Santa Clara	WCC	0.19	0.19	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
Seattle	WAC	0.17	0.17	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.17	0.17	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Stanford	P12	0.16	0.16	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.16	0.16	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.15	0.15	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.14	0.14	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.13	0.13	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.12	0.12	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Washington St.	P12	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Long Beach St.	BW	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Central Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
San Jose St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	10.34	10.34	-0.07	-0.07
Nevada	MWC	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
UMKC	WAC	0.09	0.09	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Binghamton	AE	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	BE	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Providence	BE	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
San Diego	WCC	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Pacific	WCC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	12.50	12.50	-0.05	-0.05
Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
USC	P12	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
UTSA	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Appalachian St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
UCF	Amer	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.02	0.02	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Horz	0.02	0.02	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
SMU	Amer	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01